LOOKING FOR A NEW NARRATIVE
On a monthly basis, I try to have one core narrative or belief to focus my efforts on. Here’s my last few months of core blog discussions…
Short Gold (full position completed 9/5) – “many trade gold… few understand it” – most insulting comment I received in response to that idea BTW. Check
Semiconductors set to BTFO (8/21) – Check
China Stocks (many trades through July) – Check
My biggest prediction to buy Trump/Materials/Inflation trade after Q1 Beat down back in May looking amazing as well. Check
I’ve been quiet lately because I am thinking. Participation is up, the excitement in the market is on the uptick, and I still believe the case for a fast move up exists. I’m not bearish yet by any means, but I am watching the crowd carefully here.
I missed an opportunity to blog about an energy pain trade about a month ago, so no need to start that discussion this late into the move.
I’m leaning toward my general market theme for October as calling it “Stocktober.” I think there’s a good chance that everything moves higher together, and makes a good move at that.
I’ll discuss this more in the coming days, but I see no separation within the market to look for a micro-situation to focus on. I’d be thinking macro here.