TIME TO SHOW THE WORLD WHAT YOU’RE MADE OF

Heading into the weekend, we started hitting oversold signals at key technical areas. While the news out Friday night was tragic, it’s the kind of news that can mount a multi-day rally.

Being that the downside was a bit more than originally anticipated to close out the week, it was the type of movement that if you choose to buy, you’d probably want to focus on top shelf names again.

I’m starting the week with names like$GS, $AAPL, $PYPL, $MU, $USG, $KBH, $EWZ, $YINN, $FRO, $HAL, $CLDX and $YRCW on my watchlist…to name a few.

A gap down will have the McClellan at -80 again, which is always a solid signal. This type of action comes at a great time, as we’ll kick off the 2015 iBC Investor Conference Online tomorrow night at 7:30 ET. For those that have signed up, you will get an email from me tomorrow with instructions on how to login. For those that haven’t, sign up here. 25% discount to any iBC subscription services, or members of any of my premium services as well.

See you tomorrow,

OA

NYC CONFERENCE ONLINE

Here’s how this will work. Next week we will be meeting in the evenings, Monday-Friday starting at 7:30 PM ET. The discussion will last a little more than 60 minutes, with 90 minutes of Q&A. There will be an interactive feel to it, as you can leave comments during the presentation, some of which I will use to navigate the discussion.

Each session is recorded. If you can’t attend, or just want the recordings for future use, you get them all. Here’s the content outline:

  • Understanding Market Dynamics
  • Past versus Present – 2014-2015
  • Understanding Market and Stock Rotations
  • Trading Through Different Market Conditions
  • Trading for a Living – Advice, Ideas, and Rules to Make it Work

In the first segment, we spend a lot of time on the mental and sentiment aspect of trading. We talk about being proactive and strategic about trading, as to not put yourself into an obvious situation where you become the easy target. We also talk about technical principles that work, markets risk appetite, correlation, behavioral patterns and speed.

The second segment is an in depth comparison to market conditions between 2014 and 2015. This also triggers discussion on the analogues we’ve been using, and how the two main types of market dynamics discussed in session one can be seen in any prior market year.

The third session will be a guide on market rotations. This starts with overall economic cycles, to market cycles, to sector rotation. Then I delve into my own personal take on how stocks rotate within the market in a risk cycle. The 2014-2015 comparisons for this one feature are worth the price of admission in my opinion.

Session four is breaking down the different types of markets and talking about how to trade them. I’m experimenting with some new portfolio management metrics I might get into in this discussion. Strategies, timing, and everything else will be inserted into this segment.

Finally, session five is a full breakdown on trading for a living. How to prepare, what you need in order to survive and take the pressure off. Tactics, strategies and overall philosophies.

I will distribute slides, and recordings will be sent out each evening via email that you can download and save to your machines. If you have any questions about this, email me at tradingaddicts@gmail.com

Hope the weekend is a good one.

OA

SOMEONE LIKES $BOX

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While I await market resolution, here’s another look at $BOX from last night.

Apparently, you rip the stock out above a range, sell it all the way back down underneath it, then buy it back to the middle.

Lovely market we have here.

LOOKING DIVERGENT

Markets can’t put in tradeable lows, or bottoms without divergence. In every scenario I can recall in blogging here, this has always been the case.

We observed this on a much larger scale back in late September. The theme of that week was “divergence.” Here this week, the instrument which has paved the way to the downside (IWM) has gone green here this morning. Just in time for the festival of comments in the last 24 hours.

This never ceases to amaze me, the conversations and tone exchanged at or near lows (assuming that is a possibility here).

I’ve done nothing on the day other than plot revenge and take a position in $CLLS and booked a gain in $SFUN. I also have a few yolo’s to bury at the close.

I’ve pulled a few names together to play for next week, but I feel I am already in or involved in the names I like most.

Hard to bet against a -80 $NYMO here.

OA

STRAPPED INTO A SHIT STORM

WHAT GOES UP MUST GO DOWN GET DESTROYED.

What a disastrous week. I supposed I deserve the head bashing…after all, I did have the nerve to say we’d probably trade in a range this week.

The $NYMO just hit -80 here this morning, but those that have been waiting to buy a dip are thinking, “nah, I’m good.”

The $RUT is now in “oh shit” territory, coming off the back of this oversold signal. Curious to see how this develops this morning.

 

 

A TECHNICAL CASE STUDY: $BOX

Any breakouts that have happened in the last week or more have seen immediate back filling the day following a breakout.

Last week, $AMBA, $GOGO, $AVGO, $QRVO, $YRCW, etc.

Yesterday, the only highlight of the day was a nice fat rip in the $BOX calls from Monday. Here’s a quick look…

2015-11-12_13-25-33

Yesterday, enthusiasm for the name, excitement, etc. Today, despair, anger, depression.

How many of you have already converted to selling the initial breakout? With most stocks seeing a retest after, there seems to be no reason not to sell into the strength. One can always get back in on the retest.

This will be something we discuss in detail on the 5th day of the NYC INVESTOR CONFERENCE ONLINE next week. Get a seat, they’ve filled up pretty quickly.

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE CONVICTION?

Glance over this post I wrote on the $RUT back at the end of October. If you haven’t heard me walk though this verbally on After Hours with Option Addict, it was remarkable to see the buying conviction off 1160 in this index for the last year or more. This was what prompted that $IWN reco for a trade at the NYC conference.

I’ve had a lot of people reference the notable weakness here. We’ve just come down to retest this conviction level as of right now.

2015-11-12_12-28-53

That ought to be the needed retest to stabilize the ship. We start breaching this, and problems mount, like the trolls in my comments.

A TURNING POINT SO CLOSE, YOU CAN ALMOST TASTE IT

HOW MANY CONSECUTIVE DAYS CAN WE TRADE LOWER EARLY, THEN FLATLINE ALL AFTERNOON?

IS THIS A SICK JOKE? I HAVE PREMIUM TO UNLOAD!

Something has to give to this awful template we’ve had each day this week. I’m hoping this market has done enough for participants to rationalize the idea of selling it down.

I’m over here shopping China set-ups and trying to figure out what is happening in retailers.

Are we oversold yet?

OA

A TECHNICAL TAKE ON $VRX

Generally I have no reason to follow stocks like this. The ones that you are unable to avoid seeing in the headlines. My stance is that the more eyes, the more participants, the more hype and the more opinions involved, the more random things become.

However, the biggest edge in trading a stock like this, especially one that has gone the way of the waterfall is to incorporate sentiment into the equation. People seek action. Lots of movement in a stock can mask weaknesses as a trader. For example, if your buy points are weak, you can miss a good entry but feel validated in your efforts in a big price swing as long as you get a piece of the middle.

Let’s apply a sentiment comparison on this ticker.

2015-11-12_10-31-21

I reduced the time frame to an hourly chart, but the daily is worth a comparison as well.

I only took interest in this name today, because today was the day I didn’t really hear it mentioned.

Any thoughts?

 

 

NICE CALL, BRO

Interesting day thus far. My idea of a range isn’t looking quite right, but my stocks are fairing much much better than yesterday. So in other words, the market looks terrible, but stocks look pretty good?

$HYG gapped lower today and is starting to reverse the loss. We’ve been talking about this in After Hours with Option Addict watching to see if it stabilizes.

I also really like China here, fwiw.

I took a position in $LULU earlier this morning and hoping to catch some traction in some November positions this afternoon.

More later,

OA

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