OA BUY: $BITA

Taking one more date with a China name before the fun is over.

Long some May calls here. Also added to $HAL, booked $AIG and $XON…and got $INNL shares and $DDD calls (yesterday).

I’ll recap this all after the close.

HAGW,

OA

IF I MAY…

I’ve been stressed, distracted, and overly focused on getting prepped for a move. While blogging here, I am trying to piece out fragments of a market narrative, trade ideas, and the usual daily therapy for my readers.

As I’ve said, I do believe that the market narrative starts to speak a bit louder in the coming weeks. For all the reasons I’ve mentioned, but most importantly because the mood I warned about is starting to spread just a little bit.

At the last couple boot camp’s, I tried to anticipate what the first market pullback might look like. I said that the first couple “dips” would be 1-2%. They have been just that.

I also talked about an April to early May rally that would need to suck in traders at high prices. I think we’re seeing that to an extent right now.

I also talked about “Sell in May and Go Away.” My take on this is that people will make that remark in years where the market has been more difficult. They don’t talk about leaving in May during the good years.

If people are deciding to stay and play, we might get our first good “woosh” of the year. Nothing to crazy…but enough to kick these late buyers out.

The structure overall still says we’re heading much higher over many months to a year, but I’m already looking to adjust strategy starting in 1-2 weeks.

OA

MUTUAL FUND MONDAY WAS A SUCCESS

I haven’t seen any fund flow data yet, but will be watching for it through the week. It seems the pain trade/chase scenario still has a hold on the market this week and the action today was fantastic.

I still think the Trump trade here for the intermediate/long term is a steal.

On the day I managed to grab $NFLX calls right at the open, along with $BIDU and $ACIA calls.

Have my eye on $EDIT, $DAL, $VIPS, $CMCM and $CNDT. Going to start up a list of trashy cheap stocks to play this summer, starting a few weeks out.

More later,

OA

WHAT TO DO IN MAY

For today’s write up…I wanted to speak on where we are heading into the Summer.

Let’s start with something I’ve been warning of for the last few years. The use of the indices to measure market direction, health or analysis is becoming defunct. I’ve been noticing this over the years and have done my best to give members alternate ways to measure market direction, health and overall analysis that tells a deeper story.

Bottom line, the rotation into ETFs and Indexed products over the years has literally thrown everyone off an important underlying narrative. 2014 was the best example of this. The market crashed that year. Period. Worst year in terms of overall breadth in over two decades. You’d never know that because the bid under the SPY kept it in an uptrend, despite 70% of stocks being down more than 10-20% that year.

Why do I bring this up?

This week I tried to make opportunity out of select strategic buys – away from the market. Do I feel good about them? Of course.

But what about “the market” here?

I don’t like the jump in bullish sentiment. This was part of the trap I had been speaking of at the Q1 Boot Camp. I said “real market corrections and analysis will take hold based on sentiment extremes…such as big +/- in overall sentiment ratings, big monthly fund flows, etc.”

Over the last month, people consistently sold out of stocks while sentiment plummeted…and the market went nowhere.

Market pops this week, AAII sentiment jumps 12 points to the average of 38.5. Enough to potentially slow things down for the month of May.

This is almost verbatim of what I said at Boot Camp…a rally into May that gets everyone excited about NOT selling in May and going away. This market move forced people to jump back in at some higher prices too.

While I am skeptical of what the SPY will do, I am thrilled at what individual charts continue to do. Before I get to firm on what I think May ends up looking like…I want to see where fund flows are pointed May 1st. I also want to see how strong/weak money coming into equities is. That will tell us whether or not it will be a long summer.

AN INVITATION FOR OA JR

Last I’ll follow up on this, for those that cared. I got an email from my son’s school today awarding him the title in the statewide Stock Market Game.

Here’s what it had to say…

In my College and Career Awareness classes during 3rd term, we entered a Stock Market game that is a statewide competition. Out of 1068 teams, our school took 1st place in the entire state, and “Da Ballerz” were the winning team. Jaxon and his teammates Nick, Jayson, and Kayden make up Da Ballerz. Over 2 months of investing, they took and initial investment of $100,000 and ended up with a portfolio worth $123,923.06.

As statewide winners, they have been invited to attend a really nice dinner and awards ceremony on May 12 from Noon-2:00. It will be located on the 10th floor of the Joseph Smith Memorial Building in Salt Lake City. They are allowed to bring 2 people with them (parents, grandparents, etc). They will be asked to give a short 1-2 minute speech about what they learned and how they approached the game. They will also receive a plaque and some other prizes. I’ve been there before, and it’s a very nice dinner and event. It’s a real honor to be able to attend. I will be there as well as Mr. Whitaker, our principal, and one of our district administrators.

I’m attaching more information that I am also sending home with the boys. Will you please look it over and let me know if you’ll be able to attend and who all will be coming. They would like to have names for the tables and a count of how many will be there for the dinner. There will also be media there, potentially newspapers and TV. That’s why they would like a signed media release. I would appreciate it if you could let me know by May 1.

Congratulations on this great accomplishment.

It’s a shame I couldn’t advise him on selecting a more suitable team name for this event. I’ll make sure in his speech that he refers to himself as “Da Ballerz.”

SMH

OA BUY: $X

I bought US Steel at $22 as discussed.

Pray for my $CLF, which is getting deballed today.

More later,

OA

DEUCES ARE A BUY FOR US STEEL

I like this price action in $X today. That stock hadn’t been marked down the same way its competition had been. Share holders were way too optimistic in the 30’s.

Even on the run up, I pleaded with folks to wait for deuces in $X to put together a long. I like today’s chaos in that regard. This move just wiped out all shareholders from the November election gap.

Now, I feel validated for leaving it be back then.

I’m an interested buyer here, and will start piecing some shares together on the first print of $22.

OA

TRAPPED BOND BULLS?

If you’ve watched the action in $TLT lately, $TLT has been bought into the last few gaps down.

This makes continued gap downs hurt even more.

Why does $TLT gap down into last weeks breakout?

Well, there’s a lot of trapped money in that market and the rotation into bonds in 2016 was off the retard-scale.

If this $122 in $TLT fails, she might get fast.

 

OA BUY: $AIG

I like the action in financials and picked up some $AIG calls dated out til June.

More later,

OA

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