WENT SHOPPING

A week of little to no movement is fucking awesome if you own short dated options.

I had a small pile of this weeks expiry’s in a handful of stocks that expired today. On the week I booked gains in $PI, $COH, $QLYS, $CYBR and $YELP. I also booked a monster in $DSX from $3-$6.

With the proceeds I’ve moved into $XON, $BLUE, $CLF, $AKS, $URA, and $JMEI this week. Tempted to grab an energy name before the day is over as well…$CRC.

Nobody wants to buy here in front of a long weekend with MOAB’s falling from the sky, so I am taking my chances.

OA BUY: $CLF

Long some May calls today, into the abyss.

OA

THE LONG AND SHORT OF SNAP

Thursday, March 16 “I DID IT. I BOUGHT SNAP.”

I booked my $SNAP puts today as it broke through $20 and bet the farm on April and next week calls.

After booking my SNAP puts on 3/16 for just shy of 200%,  I started my long SNAP position Thursday near the close of April 22 calls ($.45) and Mar24 21 calls ($.25).

The following day (Friday), I added to both positions Apr 22 calls ($.35) and Mar24 21 calls (.15). On Monday I purchased Mar31 22 calls for $.20. At this point, these trades combined are roughly 10% of my account. 5%, 4%, 2%.

Over the next few days, I booked the 21’s for $2.15. With an average basis of $.17 that was an 1165% return. I WATCHED my Apr 22’s move up as much as 650% and stayed the course. I also sold my Weekly 22’s for $.55, a 175% return.

I caught losses in adding 4 different weekly expiry’s at 1% a pop. Those additions were where I thought we’d find buyers below, as pointed out in my ten day long dialogue of this stock. No dice, all weekly’s turned to dust.

At the moment, the positions that are still workable are my original Apr and Apr28 expiry. I have nothing else planned for this stock other than what I’ve already done.

Feel free to post questions and thoughts as I’m sure you will.

HERE’S WHY WE DON’T PULLBACK TIL MAY

Fund flows over the last few weeks show that money came out of index and equity. The echoing sentiment out there is that these daily fades are going to connect soon and lead the market lower.

The problem is, HF’s have already sold and retail has been raising cash and positioning for lower.

This chart is still paramount, IMO.

Cash position stayed in extreme high territory for the longest duration on record. Even now, we’re still sitting around that 5% threshold.  When we dip UNDER 3.5%, that is where markets top and correct.

Last week, we hit the lowest bull sentiment reading for the year, as well as the highest bear sentiment for the year via AAII.

If the market resolves this little chopfest higher, people will be forced to chase back in at higher prices. That will be the first bull trap scenario we’ve had in ages.

That is why I think you wait for May to play for downside.

READY FOR BATTLE

Was a busy week both on and off the court. I got an offer on my house and left town early this morning to try and secure a house in SoCal.

Got my eyes on biotech next week as well as software stocks. I worked up a watchlist for both groups, but favorites include $ONCE, $PBYI, $GILD, $WDAY, $NOW, $IMPV.

Should be a great week next week. Enjoy the weekend.

 

OA BUY: $SNAP

I took my last trade on $SNAP about an hour ago. As discussed, I’ve been wanting one extra week of time behind my April 22 calls.

I bought Apr28 25 calls for an average of $o.325 today.

I also picked up $FNMA at the open and $WDAY calls as well. Booked $LVS gains and might book $BOX or $YELP calls too.

BOY, THAT $SNAP SURE LOOKS GOOD

If I’m quiet, it’s because there’s been zero development on this since last week. Between my trading room and after hours, I’ve dedicated the bulk of my days to talking and trading through this idea since I started it. At this point, I am as ready as the rest of you for anything to happen here.

From  IPO high to low, the daily commentary was in full sync with the stock til mid week last week. I said I thought the stock would consolidate closer to $24, and instead it consolidated the week at $22.50.

The stock is coiling for a move, obviously. Until there’s movement to analyze, I’m comfortable with how I’m positioned for a break of this range.

Tomorrow is the day it shakes loose. There’s nowhere else for it to go.

I BOUGHT THE BOTTOM IN RETAIL THIS YEAR, WHAT DID YOU DO?

One of my broad market themes this year was rotation into consumer plays, particularly retail.

Back in January, I started accumulating names like $SHLD, $JWN, $COH and picked up some $RETL about 2 weeks ago.

I’m wildly bullish on retail this year, but you have to implement another layer of intelligence when playing this group.

Most things retail suck. You have to consider trends, fads, too much negativity, too much optimism…all when picking a candidate.

As an example, I bought $SHLD. I won’t argue that this company might turn to dust in 5 years, but I would argue that this was top perceived “Lehman” of retail. I love when you can sense group think about a company or situation such as this.

I added my last portion of $RETL here, and will be buying dips in individual names til the fall.

Got any favorites? Leave me a comment about them.

OA

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