Thursday, March 16 “I DID IT. I BOUGHT SNAP.”

I booked my $SNAP puts today as it broke through $20 and bet the farm on April and next week calls.

After booking my SNAP puts on 3/16 for just shy of 200%,  I started my long SNAP position Thursday near the close of April 22 calls ($.45) and Mar24 21 calls ($.25).

The following day (Friday), I added to both positions Apr 22 calls ($.35) and Mar24 21 calls (.15). On Monday I purchased Mar31 22 calls for $.20. At this point, these trades combined are roughly 10% of my account. 5%, 4%, 2%.

Over the next few days, I booked the 21’s for $2.15. With an average basis of $.17 that was an 1165% return. I WATCHED my Apr 22’s move up as much as 650% and stayed the course. I also sold my Weekly 22’s for $.55, a 175% return.

I caught losses in adding 4 different weekly expiry’s at 1% a pop. Those additions were where I thought we’d find buyers below, as pointed out in my ten day long dialogue of this stock. No dice, all weekly’s turned to dust.

At the moment, the positions that are still workable are my original Apr and Apr28 expiry. I have nothing else planned for this stock other than what I’ve already done.

Feel free to post questions and thoughts as I’m sure you will.


Fund flows over the last few weeks show that money came out of index and equity. The echoing sentiment out there is that these daily fades are going to connect soon and lead the market lower.

The problem is, HF’s have already sold and retail has been raising cash and positioning for lower.

This chart is still paramount, IMO.

Cash position stayed in extreme high territory for the longest duration on record. Even now, we’re still sitting around that 5% threshold.  When we dip UNDER 3.5%, that is where markets top and correct.

Last week, we hit the lowest bull sentiment reading for the year, as well as the highest bear sentiment for the year via AAII.

If the market resolves this little chopfest higher, people will be forced to chase back in at higher prices. That will be the first bull trap scenario we’ve had in ages.

That is why I think you wait for May to play for downside.


Was a busy week both on and off the court. I got an offer on my house and left town early this morning to try and secure a house in SoCal.

Got my eyes on biotech next week as well as software stocks. I worked up a watchlist for both groups, but favorites include $ONCE, $PBYI, $GILD, $WDAY, $NOW, $IMPV.

Should be a great week next week. Enjoy the weekend.



I took my last trade on $SNAP about an hour ago. As discussed, I’ve been wanting one extra week of time behind my April 22 calls.

I bought Apr28 25 calls for an average of $o.325 today.

I also picked up $FNMA at the open and $WDAY calls as well. Booked $LVS gains and might book $BOX or $YELP calls too.


If I’m quiet, it’s because there’s been zero development on this since last week. Between my trading room and after hours, I’ve dedicated the bulk of my days to talking and trading through this idea since I started it. At this point, I am as ready as the rest of you for anything to happen here.

From  IPO high to low, the daily commentary was in full sync with the stock til mid week last week. I said I thought the stock would consolidate closer to $24, and instead it consolidated the week at $22.50.

The stock is coiling for a move, obviously. Until there’s movement to analyze, I’m comfortable with how I’m positioned for a break of this range.

Tomorrow is the day it shakes loose. There’s nowhere else for it to go.


One of my broad market themes this year was rotation into consumer plays, particularly retail.

Back in January, I started accumulating names like $SHLD, $JWN, $COH and picked up some $RETL about 2 weeks ago.

I’m wildly bullish on retail this year, but you have to implement another layer of intelligence when playing this group.

Most things retail suck. You have to consider trends, fads, too much negativity, too much optimism…all when picking a candidate.

As an example, I bought $SHLD. I won’t argue that this company might turn to dust in 5 years, but I would argue that this was top perceived “Lehman” of retail. I love when you can sense group think about a company or situation such as this.

I added my last portion of $RETL here, and will be buying dips in individual names til the fall.

Got any favorites? Leave me a comment about them.



I read a comment that rubbed me the wrong way this morning and felt the need to speak on this topic just a bit.

I blog, unfortunately. As a blogger I put myself out there. Putting yourself out there is stupid…as in this day and age, people walk around looking for opportunities to scoff, mock, put down, or throw feces at you. In many cases I go beyond what most are willing to sacrifice in terms of market, stock, and predictions in general.


Most avoid this for lack of skill. Others avoid this for fear of being wrong. I do it for the opportunity to be right and highlight some things that others might not see or think of themselves. If I were going to read a blog, that’s what I would want to read, personally.

By putting myself out there, I get to deal with a lot of the negativity of people. I opt to have fun with it.

My online persona?

I’m a total dick. I do this on purpose too.

100% of you that have met me will have nothing but nice things to say. I’m one of the nicest guys you’ll ever meet. I take care of those who belong to my services, or to anyone that I can lend a hand to.

But my standoffish online personality, it triggers emotion. It makes people read and listen. It eliminates the dumbshit questions too, since you know I’m going to rip and humiliate you if you come here as a dumbass. It also helps to filter those that I work with within the walls of my services. I opt for quality, not quantity.

So let’s all be content to generally offend one another, shall we?

I bought some $SNAP calls at $22 here moments ago. I suppose we could talk about this again too?



Listen, the reason I posted that video yesterday is to discuss movement this week that would draw in both sides of the trade.

I said last Thursday night that the stock needed to close last week quietly to keep both longs and shorts engaged into the weekend. Check.

I said the stock “would rip to $24, 24.50, 25 range on Monday early, then fade sharply into mid week.” CHECK.

Stop and think why that detail was/is at all important and therein lies the answers to all your questions. It was so you late longs would shit yourself out of this trade for me.

The only thing I missed on this idea at all was how far it would pull back into weakness mid week. It’s trading fifty cents away from that price I called out. I’m sure in some troll-fuck way that makes this a bad call/trade/idea/whatever.

Chart looks as it should. Quiet today was the next best case scenario.

Moving forward, I will be charging babysitting rates.

The only thing that concerns me at all is the Angel of Death jinx that hit me on this last week. I won’t elaborate on this, but I am giving offerings to the Stock Gods for their grace on this one.

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