MARKETS MEASURED MOVE

Today’s bear trap might be enough to fuel the next leg up in stocks. The close was telling, and the breadth was off today. That means that while advance/decline was down, the selling didn’t match the pitch of market direction. Money managers aren’t in a position to sell here, which is why they’re telling you to be the one to sell stocks.

Pain trade here is a gap up, and that sets us up to work off this measured move in the $SPX. Dow and Nasdaq have the same pattern here, but the $RUT hasn’t confirmed this pattern yet. Downside risk is a retest of rising resistance. Dow/SPX downside is limited, Nasdaq a little more extreme. The upside targets are more significant in $RUT/$COMPQ.

It should be noted that the $NYMO hit relative OS today. -60 in a grind is as good as it gets.

The chase starts soon.

SPXtargets

AHWOA STARTS NOW

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If you are unable to attend live, the recording will be uploaded shortly after the meeting concludes.

Please feel free to bring any market, stock, or related questions to the meeting.

OA

I’M FEEL I’M BEING SET UP

I gotta admit, I’m really having a hard time with this today.

FUCKGOLDMAN

Thanks guys.

The $TICK has been very benign today, really not confirming of this downside move. I can’t get over that.

Too many divergences today. Feels more like a trap here than a reversal, but I’ll review all the reasons why after the bell.

OA

OA BUY: $GILD, $CMCM

I picked up September calls for $GILD just now and $CMCM at the open. I am shopping a few other names here today:

$SWKS, $GOGO, $FIT, $QLYS, $SQ and $JD.

More later,

OA

BILL BRINGS BAD NEWS

BONDWITHBILLThis is why I don’t blog news here, because the stuff I notice is pretty stale stuff. Why didn’t someone tell me Bill had said that the “Golden Age of Investing is Over?” That’s pretty important stuff. I know it was a month ago, but last time he said something like that was 2012, right before we took out 2007 highs.

BILLBLOWSI always like those certainties. I bookmark them for future reference.

OA

THE OPPORTUNITY COST OF BEING UNDERINVOLVED

Make no mistake, but if you are involved here whatsoever, its an entirely different market than it has been for the last few years. There’s still so much anxiety out there about being involved or participating, and for that reason we continue to grind. Like I said at the initial point of breakout, no dips for you. Why would it be that easy?

I’ve been in the process of trying to formulate a market pain trade theory here, which involves the massive trend away from active MF’s, hedge funds, and stock pickers and has gone into ETF’s and indexed products. Safe to say the boat is officially loaded in those products…so what if the market really doesn’t go anywhere? In the meantime, the moves I’ve been nailing in stocks has been insane. Huge moves left and right. Predictable, cheap, and a new ease of follow through. All while your SPY goes nowhere.

I’ve said this before, but if you are watching the market to dictate a trade in XYZ, you’re only hurting yourself here. Correlations still remain at multiyear lows.

Come trade some stocks with me.

OA

MUTUAL FUND MONDAY

Futures pressing higher tonight in prep for Mutual Fund Monday. First of the month, and the first month in years where we’re at all time highs. Think that all the redemption money and those that cashed out this year looking for market calamity might have a change of heart this month?On my radar this week is $HDP, $CMCM, $SWKS, $CMG, $STMP, $GOGO, $TWLO, $FIT, $GPRO, $FDC, $FEYE, $GWPH.Make it a profitable week, or hit me up for some trades.OA 

EVEN SATAN’S STOCK FOUND A BID

Shares of $FEYE are breaking out today, and as I type, the stock is printing $18 on massive volume due to a buyout rumor and the ponytail’s pimping their book on the teevee. I’ve been sitting in August calls forever, so I welcome the chase attempt here.

You may be asking why I labeled this stock “Satan’s Stock.” Well, over the last year or more I started nibbling into these stocks on the way down. Was trying to shop growth stocks, the type that had the late 2013 melt-ups, and buy them 50% or more off their highs. I did this with $FEYE, and the stock into Q4 earnings literally shit the bed, as stocks gapped into an abyss not seen before. It trapped me, and was forced to empty my shares rather than stick to it and add.

$FEYE owes me. I hope to be here on the day it is acquired in order to be made whole on this pig.

OA

FOR GOD SO LOVED THE WORLD, HE GAVE US FACEBOOK

handsBy now you already know, shares of $FB melting higher after hours on a huge earnings beat.

The social media behemoth posted earnings of 97 cents per share, adjusted, on revenues of $6.44 billion in revenue in the second fiscal quarter. Analysts had expected 82 cents per share on revenues of $6.02 billion, according to a Thomson Reuters consensus estimate.

Facebook’s main money stream, ad revenue, hit $6.24 billion, versus the $5.8 billion expected by analysts surveyed by StreetAccount. Mobile ad revenue took the lion’s share (84 percent) at $5.42 billion, versus the $4.84 billion expected.

That means mobile ad revenue is up 81 percent year-over-year, the company said.

Monthly active users hit 1.71 billion during the quarter, also topping the 1.69 billion estimate from StreetAccount. Daily active users hit 1.13 billion, above the 1.11 billion expected. Monthly users on mobile increased 20 percent year-over-year, and daily users on mobile increased 22 percent year-over-year, the company said.

But Facebook was able to monetize those users more than expected, posting $3.82 average revenue per user, up from $3.32 last quarter and above the $3.59 expected.

This company is a serious game changer, eh? No position, FML.

OA

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