NO DIPS FOR YOU: VOLUME THREE

July 11th, the $SPX traded to new all time highs. On that day, I posted a note that there would be no dips to buy. The best we’ve had is a two week leveling off and a one day bear trap to allow folks on the FIMO train. Still doesn’t feel like there’s anxiety or worry about not getting in, there seems to be much more “let it go, it’s going to crash anyway.”

Look at the stock to market movement here. Absolutely incredible.

I’d blog about something here, but I literally am laughing all the way up on this $TWLO. Blow off move today?

$TWTR post IPO did $40-$75, but it also took about a month.

OA

BIGGER THAN THE BELLS THAT RING IN YOUR CHURCH

Clifton_Campville_Church_BellsIt required stones that most men can’t carry, but it looks as if it will pay me handsomely in the end.

My original thesis on this $TWLO idea was that it would be similar to the $TWTR and $BABA IPOs that we traded in years past. They were the stocks that would be chased into a buying frenzy. Not long after I made that call, Jimmy Cramer started pumping the stock pretty hard. Once I saw this, I doubled my position knowing that the pieces were in place.

I doubled down yet again a little over a week ago after earnings, and made this my largest leveraged position the last time this stock traded at $40. The stock had a great week last week as it rallied $13 into the weekend, which is where I made a difficult decision on whether or not to hold.

I held. I think there’s a great chance this stock trades to $70, but I am only covered on this til Friday.

For those of you that let a winner run, enjoy what I hope will be a good week.

OA

OH, HEY…DOW WAS DOWN 40

Friday, we closed out the week with the Dow down 40 points. I used to blog quite a bit back in the day about “Dow 40 Days” as they’re my absolute favorite.

Quick summary for my “Dow Down 40” Friday:

  • Friday, “the market” was flat to down.
  • Friday, I owned leveraged positions on FOUR of the top 20 performing stocks in the market – $BABA, $TWLO, $JD, $CMCM (liquid stocks more than $10 per share).
  • Friday, I owned TWO of the top 10 performing stocks under $10 ($RUN, $OCLR).

If you’ve been following, this has been a daily trend for me for months…not just a one day deal. You may be content to sit out wait this all out for the next crash, or nut up and play a hand or two while you’re waiting. Who knows? Maybe we make a few bucks together.

In each of these trades I take, I am putting people in front of moves well before they happen. I skate to where the puck is going to be. I am never behind the ball. Most importantly, all my methods, strategy and approach was built to excel in these conditions, and I’m on track to have one of my best years ever.

I spent the better part of a year promising this market was coming, and got really specific at the scary points. Check my archives. I’m the same guy that took 6 figures out of the market last time we had conditions like this and bought a house on two acres. I’m in the process of doing it again.

Boot camp is scheduled for month end. I don’t normally care to self promote as you’ve probably noticed, but I have a good enough product here for less than what you spend a week to intoxicate yourself. Sign up and let’s make it a profitable fall.

SET THE DATE: iBC Q3 BOOTCAMP

As you’ve probably heard, Fly announced the launch of iBC Q3 Boot Camp, presented by yours truly. I’m really excited about this, because my boot camps from last year and this year were spot on. Predictions came to fruition, and I was one of few that got this market right. Why should you attend? This camp is focused on taking the sum of my methods and analysis and turning that into actionable ideas. If you’re feeling behind the curve in the market, I can be a friend to you.

Here’s a quick run down of this year’s Boot Camp highlights.

Q1 Boot Camp Highlights: In the midst of market destruction, I encouraged participants to consider participating in the market with Covered Calls and Dividend Paying stocks. This enabled me to stick to the long term script, but to give traders an actionable, low risk, and very profitable approach to trading a market where investment banks were recommending to “sell everything.” The fear premium paid well on the selling side, and quality stocks have been amazing since those lows. We discussed trading the S&P Buy Write Index ETF, and the Dividend Aristocrats ETF ($NOBL) which traded to all time highs month ahead of the rest of the market.

Q2 Boot Camp Highlights: My Guide to Stock Picking. I think this was my best piece of work, especially given the market predictions and normalization of market environment and conditions. As you may have seen, or not seen…my stock picking has been the best its been in a long time, and used these methods to call some timely market rotations in the last few months.

Upcoming Q3 Boot Camp Itinerary: I’m going to use my same methods to help participants predict the next big market moves, and set them up with the right tools to recognize when these conditions start to shift. With the amount of anxiety, pessimism, and fear still in the air, this will be important to help give traders confidence in engaging this market and knowing when to step out before the rug is pulled. We’re obviously at a very unique period in financial markets and politics. I believe this boot camp will help you to better engage the tape, and recognize there’s a lot of opportunity here, not just risk.

Here’s the schedule:

Day 1: Analyzing the Sector Rotations of 2016 and What to Expect Heading into the Fall

I plan to walk through the nature of this years rotations comparing them to other market cycles. Most importantly, looking forward at the next rotations yet to occur to help you be in front of the next market moves. I also plan to reiterate market conditions and warning signs to watch for heading into the fall.

Day 2: Beyond the S&P: A Look at Global Markets in Turmoil

We’ll look at European and Asian markets from long term perspectives narrowing down to recent price action. I’ll illustrate which will be important to watch moving forward, and have some great trade ideas, particularly in Asian markets.

Day 3: The Scariest Charts Heading Into Year End

This topic is pretty self explanatory, and with any luck, will set up some great downside moves for you guys heading into October.

Day 4: Will Silver and Gold Collapse This Fall or Continue to Shine?

This will be a great look at whether or not the last 5 years were part of a longer term bull or bear market in the metals. There’s a big move coming this fall and want you to be there for it.

Day 5: My Single Best Idea for Q3, and How the Elections Will Affect Your Trading

Single best idea, but will give you many ideas to take heading into the fall…especially plays off the upcoming election.

This camp is my most important to date. Its a unique combination of how to apply my methods to show you how I am predicting what’s coming next.

Click here to sign up. Please email me at tradingaddicts@gmail.com with questions.

Looking forward to this. Hope to see you there.

NIKKEI KNOCKING ON RESISTANCE

NKDdynamiteThe Nikkei is trading in the same pattern that just about every other market, index, sector, group and stock have traded in on the longer term time frame. Wedge pattern on the weekly, on the verge of a breakout.

Something to watch here before the end of the week, or maybe into next week.

THE PRO’S WERE LEFT “HOLDING HERMAN” ON THIS YEN MOVE

pantsdown

Yet another of the many observations I pointed out last year and early this year about correlations of now and 1998. I was guaranteed that the market would unravel as the USD/JPY collapsed this year, as I’ve argued that this wouldn’t change the outcome for stocks. Bloomberg tried to shed some light on how they missed this move, but I’ll throw out the same chart again to illustrate how this trade collapsed in August of 1998, similar to how it did in August of 2015. It continued to get blown up while the markets entered melt-up mode.

2016-08-11_12-41-10Just following up.

OA

I HEAR YOU JAMES

xdxjUkTHey, look at that. $TWLO is ripping faces off here.

Largest position with a few adds. Price target was $50. Eat up.

OA

TRADERS PLAYING IN DIRTY RETAIL NAMES TODAY

I talked during the week of my free After Hours trial about watching for a rotation/move in retail. Since then, there were three different days where retail stocks were creeping to the top of the performance lists. Now with a few favorable earnings reports, retail stocks are breaking out left and right. $XRT just broke away from it’s YTD trading range today.

I also spoke about watching transports for this same type of move. The real opportunity was a few months back when the bullish percent hit 15…but there are still many stocks that haven’t quite broken out yet. We’ll probably do a top down tonight on After Hours to discuss this.

Other than that, I am a pig in shit today. My style was built around these conditions and they’re working to perfection.

Top ideas here: $NOW, $MBLY, $USG

More later,

OA

PLACE YOUR BETS ON $BABA

ON-BM674_Cov091_KS_20150911223706
We’re approaching the 1 year anniversary of this Barron’s cover that printed last year. I remember being in an airport store and took a pic with my camera. Not long after I made this one of my biggest LT positions coming into the year.

I’ve been talking up this earnings announcement over the last few weeks. Mostly because implied volatility has been FALLING into earnings. When I take earnings trades, I am always looking for discounted premium, and $BABA options are trading at the cheapest prices they’ve ever traded into earnings.

From a technical perspective, the stock chewed through a massive wall of supply this week. In fact, look at an intraday chart of yesterdays price action. It spent the first hour and a half pegged at $85.

So after Barron’s talks about why the stock could fall 50% from the low $60’s, it’s actually up 40% since the magazine hit the racks. Think the next 10% is higher or lower?

Disclaimer: Long stock, bought calls Monday.

OA

YEAH, LITTLE UNDER THE WEATHER THIS MORNING

I’m sick as a dog today. Could be the sushi I ate last night, or watching a 12% LT position in $FSLR sell off and reverse the way it did. Those moves can cause a little stomach churning.

Which by the way, don’t show up to talk shit about the stock now. Especially after you had an 87% return in the name at the start of the year while the entire world was melting down. Let it slip through your fingers? I don’t feel bad for you at all, so tell someone else that cares. I own the stock too. Have for 3 years. Blow me. Go ask someone else about it. I spend a shit ton of time researching, listening to calls, taking in opinions of others close to the name. Do you do the same? Or do you show up for a hand out, saying nothing with an 87% return, but rather prefer to show up and hate on the name in a situation like this. Take it to the message boards.

I came up with a new list of set-ups I like that we’ll discuss after hours. Right now, I’m thinking of booking a $PANW loss, rolling out $WDAY and $PYPL to September, buying a ton more $NFLX here, going “all in” on $BIDU and waiting for these other China names of mine to slow down so I can book some unrealized gains.

Watching $TSLA into the close as it sits at a spot that will dictate the next 10% move.

I bought $XON and $FCX calls this morning.

I anxiously await moves in $STMP, $TWLO, and $SSYS.

What’s your top pick here? Just looking to create some new chat.

OA

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