HIGH BETA HARAMBE’D

I don’t generally like big market days like this. Nothing stands out. Everything is up a little.

While most pray for big market moves, I prefer my Dow 40 days. Slow markets make fast stocks more prominent. They get more attention and action as opposed to in big market moves like this.

Speaking of big moves like today, it feels like rotation is underway a little. Last week, my stocks were stuck in the mud, except for the China stock rippage early in the week. I wonder if this is where growth stocks slow and value stocks pick up the slack.

As the week wore on, my revenge trades imploded. Like Richter Scale imploded. Today, my next favorite stock ($TWLO) is getting Harambe’d. Not to mention my $TWTR starter woke up to an epic gap down.

Suffice it to say, rhythm has been officially thrown off. Assume all your favorite stocks are about to break your heart.

GOLDMAN WANTS YOUR SOLAR

I only question the timing. Well, the motives too, of course.

NEW YORK (TheStreet) — Shares of First Solar (FSLR) were falling in pre-market trading on Friday as the stock’s rating was cut to “neutral” from “buy” at Goldman Sachs late yesterday.

The firm has a $42 price target on shares of the Tempe, AZ-based solar energy solutions provider, the Fly reports.

“Solar stocks appear to be reflecting the challenging cyclical environment that has emerged in recent quarters,” the firm said.

Additionally, Goldman said that 2017 system bookings seem “unlikely to materialize” at this point in the second half of 2016, the Fly notes.

Goldman also downgraded Solar Edge (SEDG) to “sell” from “neutral” in the note, upgrading Sunrun (RUN) to “buy” from “neutral” and Vivint Solar (VSLR) to “neutral” from “sell.”

A MORNING MISSIVE, IN $GOLD TERMS

I noticed the traffic on Gold related instruments was relatively high yesterday. Lots of players were looking for a technical bounce in the metals to play.

I haven’t blogged on the topic since July 7th, but looking back…not sure that timing could have been much better.

In my last Boot Camp, we spent an entire evening focused on Gold and Silver. One chart we spent a bit of time on was the $GOLD:$WTIC spread, which topped it’s most extreme value earlier this year.

oilgoldscaryThis chart suggests that earlier this year, you could have bought 47 barrels of oil with an ounce of gold. The longer term average of this spread is more like 15.

Off of this analysis I told folks to short gold against an oil long. How has that trade been working recently?

If you flip the spread here (hat tip @bcanals) this looks like tip of the iceberg movement…

wticgoldHe also pointed out the following chart, which is $SPX:$GOLD ratio. Looks like my sentiment chart, no?

spxgoldBeen thinking about these since last night. Very intriguing especially after the popularity of these instruments yesterday.

TIME TO RELOAD ON SOME $TWEETER

Last long in $TWTR was back on 9/19. Caught the gap and go, but only held for $22 due to upcoming expiry. The profile supported $24.75 as a target, which was hit and rejected yesterday.

I had a lot of questions in the last two weeks about whether or not one should trade $TWTR calls in anticipation of a buyout. I responded as I normally do to those that want to chase… “Absolutely not.”

Today I rescind that response and will be a buyer of November $TWTR calls at the open.

If you liked this idea in the mid-$20’s, and don’t take action here, I question your sanity.

THE DEVIL ALWAYS SMILES WHEN YOU NEED A FRIEND

I bought $FEYE calls today, on top of the 6 new positions I took yesterday.

If you know my history with this stock, I’m pretty sure I’ve never made money in it. If I did, it’s certainly been drowned out by a multitude of losses.

While your “Do Not Trade” lists are filled with nearly all publicly traded companies, mine is made up of two: $FEYE, $TSLA.

Disclaimer: Long both.

China Rips While IPO’s Dip

On a day where the market traded mostly lower, I had to share my excitement over my top trade theme from late last week: China Internet Stocks!

In a trending market, what I use to help me navigate from group to group is when I see that most of the stocks within a group happen to be “setting up” simultaneously.

Take a look at the price patterns on these charts and see if you can tell them apart!

2016-10-04_15-52-27

Late last week, I bought calls in $YY, $ATHM, $CMCM, $WB and this week added $BITA, $SOHU and $BABA.

While it was great to be in front of a good move in these stocks today, I’m starting to detect some similar set-ups in the IPO stocks.

Here are some charts I am stalking this week:
2016-10-04_15-56-16

What IPOs are you watching here? Tell me in the comments, let’s discuss.

ALERT: DOW DOWN 40, PORTFOLIO APPROACHING ATH’S

Last week I told folks to load the boat on China stocks. I ended up buying as many as I could hold.

$BIDU, $BABA, $CMCM, $ATHM, $WB, $BITA, $YY, $CTRP and $YRD.

In 2012-2013 I’d use this same approach to bouncing from group to group every other month. Thus far, all indications conclude that this year moving forward shows no different.

As I warned, we’ve entered into the exact market conditions I promised back in Fall of last year. The longer you sit out, the longer it lasts.

I’m interested in $FEYE, $SQ, $UPS and $FSLR around here.

A MILQUETOAST MUTUAL FUND MONDAY

I’m approaching the month of October cautiously. I think sentiment has shifted a bit in the last two weeks and I’m looking for any excuses to lighten up here.

Back in August, there were many looking for a breakout to bet against stocks. That voice has gotten quiet. It seems like the crowd has accepted that the market trades higher from here. Many are referencing how great the last few Octobers have been, which makes me even more nervous.

This would also be an optimal time for something to happen to stir up noise ahead of the election.

I ran a poll awhile back and to my astonishment I found that a big chunk of the vote were people in a high cash position. Ideally, we get a good market move this week to get that crowd to deploy some capital before the market gets volatile.

This week, I’m enamored with Chinese Burritos and Biotech. IPO’s look great as well.

Other than that, I’m not trying to increase exposure here, fwiw.

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