THE PAIN OF POPULAR OPINION

Yesterday’s AAII sentiment results shows the second highest tally of bears for the year at just shy of 40%. This is what I call the popcorn set-up.

As I’ve always said, happy to bet against pessimism and fear every day of the week.

With the FANG, Biotech and Semiconductor set-ups all in sync, hard to see much downside until we get a fast move higher.

Hope your week was as good as mine.

OA

Added second batch of $DGLD

Back in 2015, I talked a lot about the various asset correlations to 1998. Specific to the dollar, that pattern/correlation helped us bet against the dollar in Dec 2016 via an $FXE long.

Here, we are close to the bottom for the greenback. That said, I thought that Gold would be my best bet to play this… especially considering the headlines.

I still have one more batch to buy in $DGLD, but have enough on now to get rolling.

OA BUY: $DGLD

Back in 2015, I talked a lot about the various asset correlations to 1998. Specific to the dollar, that pattern/correlation helped us bet against the dollar in Dec 2016 via an $FXE long.Here, we are close to the bottom for the greenback. That said, I thought that Gold would be my best bet to play this…especially considering the headlines.

After the bell, I’ll take you through some correlation analysis – specific to my reasoning on why this is the best play.

I still have one more batch to buy in $DGLD, but have enough on now to get rolling.

OA

CASE MADE FOR A FAST MOVE UP

Last night’s After Hours with Option Addict is worth a watch. I haven’t spoke market talk in quite some time, as I was under the opinion it was totally fucking irrelevant…but yesterday after the bell I made the case for a fast move higher starting this week. In the last few days, I have been getting hit with unsolicited market analysis…or forwarded articles of the doom variety…so I pitched my case for why the market makes it’s fastest move up for the year starting into yesterday’s weakness.

FANG stocks all rallied off support, semiconductors are set to BTFO, and biotech stocks had the looks for a breakout…all of which happened today.

An important note we discussed was that the anxiousness in volatility indicators was not being presented in the market action. Meaning, people were starting to price in downside but market speed has all but deteriorated.

The market weakness you want no part of starts from a fast move up. Til that happens, I’m content to headline with “staying the course” til I the anxious ones are no longer anxious.

 

SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX SETTING UP SOMETHING SPECIAL

The volatility contraction in the Semiconductor index seems to be setting up for a very big upward directional move.

These stocks are important. They’re early cycle of course, and they are the group that signaled market higher back in early 2016.

The above range signals a 10% move that will happen fairly quickly when triggered. This is why I’ve been stacking these stocks in my portfolio the last couple weeks.

THE GAP UP GANG NOW UNDER PRESSURE

Strategically, I refuse to buy into the gap and go days we saw on Monday.  Any market setup like that with the crowd relatively ‘engaged’ makes the pain trade + lower.

Now that current prices have knocked out Monday’s range, I’m eager to buy. In essence a wasted week like this can be an opportunity if you end the week with longs getting stopped out and ending the week flat, or with low exposure like they did on Friday.

I still like semiconductors and software stocks. $SMH is setting up for a big move…and the software stocks I mentioned last week are on the 52week high lists this week. I’m interested in $SWKS, $MCHP, $TTD, $FFIV, $EVBG.

More later,

OA

SORTA STUCK HERE

Thursday’s $NYMO signal was a nice gift. Betting against fear into a weekend has been a decent paying bet for most of the year. However, if you avoided buying low on Thursday or Friday, this is by far one of the most frustrating situations of the summer that I can recall.

I bought a few things at the end of last week, but not everything I wanted. Everything else on my list ripped 3-5% yesterday. With the way we’ve opened up the week, I’m sorta stuck. I feel like chasing stuff here and we revisit last weeks lows. If I don’t chase here, everything trades to the highs without me.

Struggling to find any other good setups, I just sit. I want any pullback I can get in semiconductors and software. I also like $TTD. $SQ, maybe $TWLO or $TWTR?

Got anything here you can’t refuse, that hasn’t already ripped off the lows?

$NYMO OVERSOLD

In these environments, it doesn’t take much to trigger an oversold McClellan. As you know, this is one of my preferred market indicators.

On an intraday basis, it saw -80 today. Watching to see how this closes and stalking SOHU, FFIV, WATT, and WFC. As a theme, I really like software stocks too.

CRM, VEEV, WDAY – I own all three.

TIME TO GET MY GROOVE BACK

Long time no time.

Man, my life almost changed a couple weeks ago and I needed the break to gather my thoughts, to be with my family and to rally around my daughter’s recovery…which will still be months in the making. Thank you to the handful of you that offered thoughts and prayers in her behalf. There are some good people that still visit this little corner of the site and I appreciate you.

This year had already been a weird roller coaster for me. Not always P&L related (although up til last month, I chopped in a range for 3 months before I got my mojo back)…but more of a change in environment that I haven’t really developed a good feel for. With that and to be totally honest, lately I have really lost the motivation to blog. Over the years my little corner of this website attracted good groups of traders. Building that type of environment, along with training others to assist in finding opportunities is what I loved about blogging….as well as how accountable you have to be for what you put out there. When being critiqued, it forces you to step your game up.

I’ve built a solid group of readers here over the years. Folks that could carry an intelligent conversation, make contributions, and were competent enough to where you could trust them not to do something totally fucktarded – like put their entire account into OTM call options. This year more than ever, the vibe has totally changed. It got sloppy, dumbed down, watered down, and I let it impact me and the group. I suppose a change in vibe might be fine, but it completely shit all over the value I felt was contained within. Like anyone else, when you genuinely feel like you are not providing any value, you start looking for something else to spark creativity, to motivate, and to bring out the best of what you have to offer. Plus, the decor around me changed drastically and I opted for Peanut Gallery rather than keeping up with the pace of change.

As most of you know, I’ve taken some steps to move back towards money management and have started the process of launching a fund. My goal was to be up and running before school starts. I feel the massive shifts in the industry offer unique opportunities to guys like me…especially when the masses have given up on active management. I’m confident that this new venture will spark the flame that I have lost for the daily grind and will motivate me to compete and go all out for my investors, rather than let dementia riddled retire assholes heckle me or let the 20 something catamites around here talk down and pick fights with me. I’m kinda spent on that front.

With the recent chaos going on in my life, I had given the thought to go back into hiding. After all, this is the phase in the market where participating is easy, everyone is an expert, and distinguishing value from one retard to the next is more difficult. In recent years, I’ve made calls that needed to be made and said things I felt needed to be said. I was content to step down – at least for a period of time to get my mind right again. After chatting with Fly a little last night, I’ve decided to try and put a little more effort into building back up what once was. I apologize for letting this place suffer the way it has. I’ve had more distractions in the year than I’ve had in the last 5 combined. Hoping that with a little help from the readers, we can develop another good market/stock picking narrative in here again.

Thanks,

OA

Page 2 of 7212345...102030...Last »